Number of COPD cases predicted to increase until 2030
Researchers predict that the number of COPD cases will increase by more than 150% from 2010 to 2030.
HealthDay News — The number of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cases is expected to increase through 2030, with the greatest increase anticipated for those aged 75 years and older, according to research published in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.
Amir Khakban, from the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, and colleagues used data from British Columbia to illustrate the projected growth of COPD hospitalizations over the next 15 years in developed countries. Forecasts of population growth and aging were combined with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model applied to population-based administrative health databases for 2001 to 2010 for British Columbia.
The researchers predict that the absolute number of COPD cases will increase by more than 150% from 2010 to 2030, with the greatest increase among those aged 75 years and older (projected increase of 220%). They anticipate a 185% increase in the burden of inpatient care, measured as the total annual inpatient days.
"Assuming no disruptive changes in the prevention and the treatment of COPD in the near future, the burden of COPD, especially the burden of inpatient care, will significantly escalate over the next 15 years, driven predominantly by population aging," the authors write. "There is a pressing need to develop new preventive strategies and treatments to reduce the future burden of COPD."
- Khakban A, Sin DD, FitzGerald JM, et al. The projected epidemic of COPD hospitalizations over the next 15 years: A population-based perspective. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2016; doi:10.1164/rccm.201606-1162PP.