HealthDay News — By 2050, an estimated 13.8 million Americans over the age of 65 years will have Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia, researchers project.

“The number of people with AD dementia is projected to nearly triple between 2010 and 2050,” Liesi E. Hebert, ScD, from the Rush Institute for Healthy Aging in Chicago, and colleagues reported in Neurology.

The researchers estimated AD incidence probabilities using data from 10,802 participants in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP), who turned aged 65 years from the studies inception in 1993 through the end of 2011.

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Between 1997 and 2010, they identified 402 cases of incident AD dementia using 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations from 1,913 individuals determined to be free of AD dementia four years earlier. These data were merged with U.S. mortality, education, and new U.S. Census Bureau estimates of current and future population.

The researchers estimated that there were 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older with AD dementia in 2010, of whom 0.7 million were aged 65 to 74 years, 2.3 million were aged 75 to 84 years, and 1.8 million were aged 85 years or older.

In 2050, the total number of people with AD dementia was projected to reach 13.8 million, of whom 7.0 million will be aged 85 years or older.

“AD dementia will involve a larger proportion of the total population as the baby boomer bulge ages, and these projections emphasize the need to find either prevention or treatment for AD dementia in order to decrease the burden of future disease on individuals, families, and the medical care system,” The researchers concluded. 


  1. Herbert LE et al. Neurology. 2013;doi:10.1212/WNL.0b013e31828726f5.